By: Yasset Pérez Riverol
The 1st graph shows the growth of countries, that have been most affected by the epidemic. Graph 2 shows the growth of some countries in the region.
There is only one country that has followed a practically linear growth in the last few weeks, (growth between 1-1.1) that is Cuba, and not only in the region, but on the planet. Two hypotheses could justify this:
1- The epidemiological surveillance system is only detecting those who are in the clusters of infected people they have already know.
2- Mitigation measures such as(closing schools, airports, bars, restaurants) are working in Cuba, better than anywhere else in the world.
As we all know, measures such as, closing schools, do not have that significant impact in reducing the numbers of infected people.
However is happening the other way around in mitigation measures such as social distancing (graph 3,4,5)
Hypothesis number two is discarded. Figures 3,4,5 shows a prediction from the imperial college on the level of infections for different countries in Europe, where different mitigation measures have been applied, with different degrees of effectiveness and efficiency. There is just one measure that has dramatically reduced the number of infections that is the absolute confinement.
Although the isolation of groups of people being under the epidemiological surveillance and the use of masks has not been applied in Europe in the same way as in Cuba, makes me come to the conclusion that these two measures are not as efficient as the complete confinement (the only measure that has reduced R0 in European countries).
Another important fact: Even when the number of tests in Cuba has been increasing (figure 6), the number of positive cases has not. This is may be an indicator of hypothesis 1. Perhaps, the epidemiological surveillance systems, do not detect new contagion groups (that is why, it is important that this number is reported).
I have received a message from a friend, telling me that his father had just been tasted positive for the Covid 19. He was neither in the contagion groups nor under surveillance. All these numbers are nothing but an absurd, if they are a lie, the only ones that can detect that are parallel information systems. You have to be ready for making more accurate and acute questions at press conferences, on twitter, etc.
Tanslated by: Miguel González Pérez.